NHL Off-Season Moves – Fantasy Impact
Most of the major off-season moves this summer were obviously made with an eye toward capturing the Cup. The Penguins and Devils reshuffled their defense in a big way and role players changed all over the league. While these deals will play a significant role in the fortunes of these NHL franchises, they barely register on the radar in terms of the impact of fantasy hockey. Players like Anton Volchenkov, Dan Hamhuis and Zybnek Michalek won’t get much attention on draft day. Even with some top scoring talent like Kovalchuk and Gonchar, the change of scenery probably won’t have much of an effect on his point total. In terms of fantasy impact, you have to dig a little deeper into the trades to appreciate the impact these moves will have this fall for your fantasy draft and the effect these moves will have on players’ fantasy value. Let’s take a look at the players whose shares have risen and fallen in recent days.
going up
1. Antero Niittimaki
So far this summer, the surprise big winner is Niittimaki. For the first time in his career, he is looking to start the season as the No. 1 goalkeeper, and what better place to do it than in San Jose. Niittimaki put in a pretty good season for Lightning, but there’s no comparison here in terms of placement. Assuming the Sharks don’t sign a 1B option, he should expect his win total to double next season. The GAA and Save% of him should also improve with the Sharks.
2. Nathan Horton
Horton has been faithfully painting in Florida for years, with the promise of Rocket Richard’s potential. He never had the talent in Miami to prepare him the way he needs a scorer. Boston suffered last year with the loss of its trigger man in Phil Kessel. The game couldn’t have been more perfect. Assuming Savard stays put (and even if he doesn’t), the Bruins have plenty of options at center who can pass the puck to Horton every night. He won’t be surprised to see Horton close to 40 goals in Boston next season if he’s healthy.
3.Jaroslav Halak
Halak escaped a dysfunctional goalie situation in Montreal to join a Blues team that should be back in the playoff hunt next season. St. Louis has a good group of defenders who helped Chris Mason put up some decent numbers last year. Halak proved last season that he is above Mason and, for the first time in his career, he is unopposed at the net. Expect big things for Halak this year, without the soap opera with Price to distract and eat up his playing time.
4. Dan Ellis
Ellis had a brief run of glory in Nashville before being eliminated by Pekka Rinne last season. He thought he would see very little playing time in Nashville going forward. However, with Niittimaki relocating from Tampa, that leaves a golden opportunity for Ellis to get a second chance at stardom. He will have to fight Mike Smith for the honors and may ultimately split the crease in 2010-11. Either way, he is in a better situation today. Tampa’s defense has become respectable and should continue to improve this year, so Ellis will have adequate support against him, even if it’s a step down from the protection he saw in Nashville.
5. Pablo Martin
Martin has never been one of the best fantasy options on defense; however, going to Pittsburgh tends to turn things around for a player. The Penguins will continue to look to Goligoski and Letang to take over from Gonchar, but neither has shown they’re ready yet. Martin should get a few chances to carry the puck and hand it to the mighty Penguin offense, which can only help his point total. Martin peaked with 37 points in his second season in 2005. He’s expected to return to that level and more with Pittsburgh next year.
6. Andres Raycroft
Raycroft is on this list simply because he goes from having no fantasy value to having some potential value this season. In Vancouver, he was relegated to monthly cameos behind Luongo. In Dallas, the only thing standing between him and a starting role is Lehtonen’s health. Those are pretty good odds for the former Calder winner who has wandered from city to city since the lockout. Consider him for a bench spot on your roster, or just keep him in mind for when Lehtonen deals with his next injury.
7. Dustin Byfuglian
Byfuglien’s actions could go either way with his move to Atlanta. For one thing, he faces a huge drop in surrounding talent. After peaking in the playoffs in regular time alongside the likes of Toews and Kane, Byfuglien will be alone in Atlanta. The good news is that he is fully capable of being the man. Most of the highlights he generated this spring were powerful solo efforts that he should be able to recreate in a blue sweater. The positive side of this move for Byfuglien has to do with his role in his new club. In Chicago, he juggled line to line, and offense to defense, depending on the opponent, the needs and the star lineup. In Atlanta, he can expect to get a regular shift up the line as the team’s power forward. It’s a no-brainer that he should top his career-high 36 points in his debut season with the Thrashers.
8. Ray Whitney
Whitney has been a fairly consistent depth option on fantasy rosters for many years. Her numbers dropped last season, along with just about everyone else in Carolina. She now finds herself on a rising Phoenix team, but with no offensive power. Whitney still has a decent production season or two to go, and he should be a good fit with the Coyotes in their top line. He should bounce back into the 65-70 range next year, which would easily make him the leading scorer in Phoenix.
going down
1. Chris Mason
The bad news for Mason came in June when Halak showed up to steal his spot in the locker room. Mason put on a solid 30-win performance last season, but found himself looking for work when Halak arrived. The good news came on July 1 when he signed a contract in Atlanta, where he will fight Pavelec for the starting job. The Thrashers are building a better team, so there is potential for fantasy value with Mason going forward; however, at least for the next season, the share price has fallen here.
2.Kurtis Foster
Foster made a brave comeback in Tampa Bay last season, posting a career-high 42 points that positioned him as a valuable fantasy option on the draft table. Moving to Edmonton won’t help his numbers much, as there’s no comparable talent to match what he worked with last season with the Lightning. He counts him as a deep defender, but don’t count on another 40-point production.
3. Yevgeny Nabokov
Almost anything at this point should be considered a downgrade to Nabokov’s fantasy value next season. After years of putting up consistent top-tier numbers, he finds himself leaving the comfort of the San Jose crease for the unknown. And most of the potential doors have been closing around him. Teams with openings for a No. 1 goaltender have begun to fill those roles (Philadelphia, Tampa, Atlanta, St. Louis, Montreal). Pending some surprise move from a team like Washington, his value will almost certainly plummet next year.
4. Dennis Wideman
Fantasy owners already had question marks about Wideman’s value heading into the upcoming season. Now that he’s moved from Boston to Florida, his worth is even more questionable. Wideman struggled a lot during the first half of last season before putting together a huge run down the stretch. Now that he’s in hockey purgatory in the South on a team with few scoring options, 30 points may be the ceiling for next year.
5. Sergei Gonchar
Leaving the Penguins for anyone has to have a negative impact on a player’s fantasy value, but don’t expect a sudden collapse from Gonchar. He put up big numbers with a below-average Capitals team before coming to Pittsburgh, and as long as he’s healthy, he should be the same consistent point producer for the Senators. He may have slipped out of the top 5 on the draft list, but don’t bring him down too far or you’ll miss out.
6.Johan Hedberg
Hedberg has made a decent career as a substitute goalkeeper. Aside from his early success in Pittsburgh, he has stuck around, filling in for injured goalies and doing a decent job. He managed to put up some good stats last season in Atlanta and became part of the fantasy image for parts of last season. Now, despite joining a better team, he has been relegated to guest appearances behind Brodeur. His minimum fantasy value went to zero.
No change
- Olli Jokinen
It’s hard to justify all the hype about Jokinen the past two years at the trade deadline. News of his return to Calgary barely broke on July 1, as fans realized that he is not the player they expected him to be. He didn’t catch fire in his first race at Calgary and didn’t have a significant impact in New York, so don’t expect a return to the Flames to return him to the game-leading player he once was.
- pavel kubina
Kubina returns to Tampa Bay after a few years of absence. He’s been a pretty steady 35-to-40-point guy for the past decade, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll fare much differently than he does when he returns to the Lightning. Age, not location, is the factor with Kubina.
- Ilya Kovalchuk
As I write this, Kovalchuk remains a free agent. Unless he packs up and heads to the KHL, it probably won’t much matter where he lands. Top teams don’t have room for him, and he’s shown he can score as a one-man show. No matter where he ends up, he’ll be one of the best fantasy picks, so put him in your top 10 and worry about the color of his sweater later. (As long as it’s an NHL sweater.)