Free College Football Pick (Part II)

Every week, the Vegas Experts sports handicap service will offer a free selection of College Football that you can use to win the sports betting line.

There are ten undefeated college football teams left going into the fourth Saturday in October. Typically, at the end of the season, there will never be more than three undefeated teams and that includes non-BCS conference teams like Boise State and TCU. So, with only a month left in the regular season, now is the time to start playing against these undefeated teams, particularly if they are favorites on the betting line, as even if they win, they may not prevail for the margin that punters are calling for.

Two undefeated teams are guaranteed to lose this Saturday as 7-0 Auburn plays 7-0 LSU and BCS #1 Oklahoma travels to Missouri in a 6-0 battle of the squads. Stay away from these games as they don’t really fit our parameters.

That leaves six teams we should be looking to play: Oregon (plays Thursday), Boise State, TCU, Michigan State, Utah and Oklahoma State. We’ll strive to remove Okie State from our list, just as the Cowboys will be 5.5 points under the favorites, at home, against a team from Nebraska in their first loss of the season.

That narrows our list down to five. Considering their stature outside of BCS and subsequent disrespect from pollsters, Boise State and TCU are more likely to “raise the score” and cover a big lead than their undefeated brethren. This season we’ve already seen Boise State cover three spreads of 38 points or more! TCU is only 3-4 ATS, but that’s because he’s been a double-digit favorite in every game.

So we are left with three potential undefeated teams to play against. Oregon and Utah are heavy favorites at home against inferior competition unlikely to win the game outright. That leaves us with Michigan State, who will be a small favorite on the road on a rested Northwestern team (away last Saturday). Keep in mind that the host Wildcats are 18-7 ATS as underdogs to Coach Pat Fitzgerald and that includes a perfect 6-0 ATS record while scoring between 3.5 and 10 points.

So our free college football pick this week is to take the Northwestern Wildcats (+5.5) over the Michigan State Spartans.