2006 Stanley Cup Final Preview
Although the weather outside doesn’t make you think of hockey, the Stanley Cup Finals start tonight. The matchup must be a complete nightmare for Gary Bettman, the commissioner of the NHL. Edmonton hasn’t been a standout team since Wayne Gretzky was traded to Los Angeles, and people don’t exactly think of hockey when they hear North Carolina. TV ratings will be dismal, though that’s nothing new for the league. It will be a good series though. Both teams have absolutely crazy fans who will be crazy, and they both play an exciting type of hockey.
I’ve lived in Calgary most of my life, so writing about Edmonton is like a New Yorker praising the Red Sox, or a Michigan fan speaking highly of the Buckeyes. A win in Edmonton would kill me (My Canada doesn’t include Edmonton), but at least according to oddsmakers they’ll have to come from behind to do it. The Hurricanes are lukewarm -140 favorites to win the series, but you can make a strong case for a win by either team. The series is eerily reminiscent of the last final: an energetic, high-achieving Alberta team riding a hot keeper in a matchup against a solid, offensively gifted southern team. Last time, my Flames put in a lot of effort, but were eventually outmatched. It remains to be seen if history repeats itself.
Here are eight factors to consider when making your plays in this series:
1) Rested or rusty? – Edmonton beat Anaheim in five games, giving them nine days off before the finals began. That time allowed them to heal injuries and get over the flu, which had hit the team badly in the last series. It also allowed them to get caught up in the chaos sweeping Edmonton and media attention in Canada (and elsewhere to a lesser extent). We will quickly know which factor will impact the team the most. They’ve ridden a wave of momentum this far, but can that momentum survive such a long break? New Jersey swept the Rangers in the first round, took a bye week, then lost to Carolina in five. They seemed like a completely different team. Anaheim crushed Colorado four straight, but then the Ducks went down with barely a squawk against Edmonton. They had eight days off. The above is not good.
2) Best defenseman: Chris Pronger is hands down the best defenseman on the ice in this series. Although he had an inconsistent first season in Edmonton and a terrible performance for Canada in the Olympics, Pronger is playing like the beast he is in the playoffs. He has pinned opposing offensive threats in all three series thus far: Pavel Datsyuk, Joe Thornton and Teemu Selanne. He’s been averaging an incredible 31 minutes per game, and he’s Conn Smythe’s clear favorite for playoff MVP if he wins Edmonton. He’s impressive in his own zone, but he also controls incredibly well, and he has 17 points in 17 games. Carolina will have to find a way to contain Pronger, or avoid him, if she wants to win.
3) Best small forward: Not only is Eric Staal the best small forward in this series, he is the leading scorer in the playoffs and is quickly becoming one of the best players in the league. He is an offensive machine and creates a difficult matchup for any team. Pronger will be on him like a glove, and Staal has yet to face a defender of his caliber this postseason, so he’ll be saying, and how he responds to that will be key to Carolina’s fate. He’s only 21 years old, so his response to that attention and the pressure of the series will be key, but he’s passed every test to this point. An interesting side note: Both Pronger and Staal were selected by the Carolina/Hartford franchise second overall in the draft: Staal in 2003 and Pronger 10 years earlier.
4) Veteran Presence: Both teams added veterans this year to stabilize the team and add the calming presence they needed to get to where they are. The new players complemented the long-time team members in both cases. In Edmonton, Michael Peca and Pronger were joined by team captain Jason Smith and plucky fan favorite Ryan Smyth. Carolina added former Oiler Doug Weight and Mark Recchi to help Rob Brind’amour, who is having a big postseason run, keep the locker room in line. So neither side will have an advantage when it comes to staying positive if things start to go wrong.
5) Goaltending – The goaltending situation couldn’t be more different for the two teams. The Oilers picked up Dwayne Roloson from Minnesota at the trade deadline. He was horrible for the rest of the season, but he’s been amazing in the playoffs. He’s 36, so he was already shaving when 22-year-old Cam Ward of Carolina was born. Martin Gerber was the starter going into the playoffs, but Ward got the opportunity from him and made the most of it. He was Carolina’s goalkeeper of the future, and the future is apparently here. Neither team has a real advantage, unless the starters have problems or get hurt. Gerber can easily replace Ward and the team won’t suffer much, if he does, while Edmonton’s backup situation is a mess.
6) Special Teams: There’s a battle of the Titans when Edmonton gets a penalty, which they’re much more likely to do than Carolina. The Hurricanes have the best power play in the playoffs, while Edmonton has outperformed every other team when it comes to penalties. Obviously, both teams will not be able to get away with it. Whichever side comes out and sets the tone early will have an impact on the series. Edmonton can avoid the situation by showing more discipline than they have so far, but that’s unlikely given their aggressive style of play.
7) Home ice advantage: Both arenas are as noisy as any in the league, so the home team should have an advantage. Carolina has taken advantage of home cooking, going 6-1 since losing its first two games at home against Montreal. To make things interesting, Edmonton has been strong along the way. They have gone 6-3, including three wins at Anaheim. The ice in Carolina is going to be horrible, soft and unpredictable, so Carolina could have an advantage there, like Tampa Bay did in 2004. Carolina has home court advantage to start the series, if they can capitalize on that, they should be able to get ahead.
8) Underrated Players – Both teams have players who don’t get the ink to match their game. Cory Stillman has 19 points in 18 games for Carolina. His presence has meant teams can’t focus on Staal. His experience and presence are also as valuable as his offense. Stillman is defending his Cup victory with Tampa Bay in 2004. For Edmonton, the pleasant surprise has been Shawn Horcoff, their No. 1 center who has 17 points in 17 games. He continues to play the game that he discovered this season. Both players will be key to their team’s success, and whoever plays better could make the difference in the series.
The views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of Doc’s NHL Drafting Service.