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The Big Ten Report – College Game of the Year Edition

The Big Ten Conference has become a two-team race and we are now just a week away from the dream matchup between Michigan and Ohio State. These two teams looked ahead last weekend and both survived single-digit wins over bad teams. After these two shows, there is a well-defined No. 3 team playing just 25 minutes from our main office in Wisconsin.

A couple of weeks ago I said that Wisconsin and Iowa would be in the running for third place and a spot in the Capitol One Bowl when the two teams meet on Nov. 11. But since then, Iowa has tanked and it will be interesting to see what kind of effort they put up this week. Coach Ferentz has won the last four meetings in this series and it will be interesting to see if he can get his team ready for this cross-border rivalry after such a disappointing 2006 season. Here’s a recap of some of the highlights from last weekend and a preview of a very important week ahead:

Iowa hosted Northwestern and it looked like they would have no trouble getting their seventh win of the season. They entered as 20-point favorites and were pitched as the Midwest Game of the Year by another sports service. This was too much weight to put on QB Drew Tate’s shoulders, as his team went flat and was dominated by the Cats. Northwestern controlled the first half, scoring two touchdowns and pulling off a key interception in the end zone to throw up a drive by Hawkeye. This score could have been much worse than 14-0, as the Cats walked away empty-handed on two other trips to the red zone.

The second part was very similar to the first. Neither team was able to generate much offense, with each team managing just one touchdown apiece. The Cats were unlucky en route to this win as they dominated in total yards, 445-266. They had great balance over 200 yards rushing and passing and this reminded me of the days when Randy Walker was in charge. This was their first conference win of the season and I expect them to play well for the rest of this season. They have another game to win in two weeks when they host Illinois.

As for Iowa, this was their second embarrassing loss of the season. They also suffered a loss to Indiana and may now have a hard time winning another game this season. They host Wisconsin this weekend and currently the lineup is off the board due to the status of Badger QB John Stocco. The Badgers will never have a more favorable situation to end their current losing streak against the Hawkeyes. Iowa has already qualified for a bowl game, but it will take place before New Year’s Day. Northwestern hosts Ohio State next weekend and currently enters as a 23-point dog. Unlike last week, I don’t expect Ohio State to look forward to this one.

The Wisconsin Badgers almost wrapped up a trip to Orlando with their win against Penn State last weekend. We had the ‘low’ in this game and everything worked out perfectly with only 16 points scored. State moved the ball through the 30s, but their drives seemed to stop once they got closer to the red zone. The Lions forced two turnovers, but could easily have been more were it not for some missed interceptions from the secondary. Wisconsin broke a 3-3 tie late in the second quarter when Paul Hubbard caught a 14-yard touchdown pass from Stocco. This would be the only touchdown scored in the game and Stocco would go out with a shoulder injury in the fourth.

The Badgers went up by two runs early in the fourth quarter when Taylor Melhaff kicked a field goal to give Wisconsin the lead, 13-3. This scoring drive was set up when a punt bounced off a Lion player deep in the red zone. The Badgers looked bad all day offensively and didn’t ask backup quarterback Donovan to light up the scoreboard. He threw only one pass and Badger fans will be worried if Stocco can’t return to action next week in Iowa City.

But the biggest story of this game was the broken leg suffered by 79-year-old coach Joe Paterno. He was brought down on a passing play that went wide and one could easily tell he was sore. He was holding his leg for several minutes before doctors finally convinced him to sit up. He eventually agreed to a leg brace before being taken off the field and flew back to State College ahead of the team. My guess is that Joe Pa will be back next week when his team hosts Temple in some capacity. Having said that, State is favored by 35 points against the in-state rival and could easily coach this team to a win, so a bye week may not be such a bad idea.

Ultimately, Purdue came within a win of a bowl game with a win at East Lansing, 17-15. The Boilermakers led throughout this contest until early in the fourth quarter when TJ Williams caught a 21-yard touchdown pass from QB Drew Stanton. Sparty moved up a point, but like so many games this season he was unable to hold onto the lead. The loss was disheartening for coach John L. Smith, who learned last week that the remaining two years of his contract would be terminated. Purdue drove down the field late in the quarter and with 4:49 left in the game, Casey Welch kicked a 19-yard field goal to give them a two-point lead for good.

The stats in this game were even with both teams having over 300 total yards, but Michigan State was much more balanced as they rushed for 145 yards. This team seems to find ways to lose football games and that is a nightmare when it comes to handicapping. Nobody knows what kind of effort to expect from them and therefore they are a team to stay away from when playing.

This is a nice win for Purdue, who will now face a bottom two to close out conference play. Both games can be won before the season ends with a trip to Hawaii. It is quite possible that this team could record nine wins. They will enter Champaign next weekend as a two-point underdog and would take a serious look at the visiting team. Michigan State will host Minnesota and the line in this game is even. But like I said, State is a team that cannot be trusted and I would expect a double-digit winner in this game, whichever side it is.

As it stands now, only six of the eleven teams in the conference will bowl. The conference could get a seventh offer if Indiana can pull off an upset in one of its last two games, but it will be a major underdog in both contests (Michigan +19, at Purdue). The conference should receive two offers from BCS with the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game going to the Rose Bowl and the winner going to Glendale.

Final Thoughts on College Football

1) Arkansas continues to win football games, but fails to impress people in the standings. They have three tough games ahead of them and I expect them to lose at least two of them due to a lack of aerial play.

2) The Louisville/West Virginia game lived up to the hype and I feel like if Louisville can take the table, they’ll be in Glendale playing for the National Championship. This won’t be an easy game either, as this team can put points on the scoreboard and may be worth watching as an underdog.

3) I still think Florida will win the SEC after playing a brutal schedule and easily beat Arkansas if the two teams meet in Atlanta. If a one-loss team emerged in the title game, I suspect it would be them.

This week we are going to go with our “College Game of the Year” after the September one was pushed. We will get the win with this game and we would like you to come on board as we have had three extraordinary weekends in football.

Free Pick – Boise State -13 over San Jose State.

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